2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time forecast of the election's potential results.

This market resolves around Nov 7, 2028, following the official announcement of the winner of the 2028 United States presidential election. The outcome will be determined by the certified results as reported by credible public sources, confirming the candidate who receives the majority of electoral votes. The resolution process focuses on verifying the official election results and ensuring they are consistent with established reporting standards. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market between now and Nov 7, 2028. Major economic shifts, unexpected geopolitical events, significant candidate gaffes, or changes in key campaign personnel could all cause traders to reassess their predictions. The release of polling data, debate performances, and primary election results will also be closely watched. Any news that alters perceptions of a candidate’s viability or the overall political landscape has the potential to move the odds and trading volume in this market.