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2028 popular vote margin of victory?
kalshi

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

May 20, 2026, 2:00 PM EST - Jan 8, 2029, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$178,231
Volume 24h:
$3,968
203%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$115,256
0.07%

Democratic by 9.0% or more

 - Kalshi

Democratic by 9.0% or more - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2029

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

22%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 22¢ buys you 455 shares | Odds: 22% Total Payout: $455 | Net Profit: $355 Multiplier: 4.55x | ROI: 355% | APY: 99% 804 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democratic by 9.0% or more

Trade
22%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
N/A
$19,757
14%
33%
$13,412
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
N/A
$16,792
0%
24%
$14,544
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$27,513
6%
25%
$19,403
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99%

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$4,786
0%
3%
$3,395
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$11,749
0%
37%
$9,451
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$10,597
0%
66%
$5,486
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99%

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$6,006
0%
3%
$3,776
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99%

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$5,324
0%
3%
$3,724
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99%

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$9,999
0.02%
9%
$4,940
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99%

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$9,070
0.02%
15%
$4,863
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$8,331
0.02%
33%
$5,529
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 1.0% to 1.99%

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$7,032
0.03%
41%
$4,375
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 2.0% to 2.99%

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$4,551
0.04%
0.93%
$2,299
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 3.0% to 3.99%

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$4,700
0.04%
0.9%
$2,447
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 6.0% to 6.99%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$9,444
0.02%
0.45%
$2,651
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 7.0% to 7.99%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$5,553
0.04%
0.76%
$3,935
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 4.0% to 4.99%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$4,988
0.04%
0.85%
$3,126
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 5.0% to 5.99%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$4,113
0.05%
6%
$2,978
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 8.0% to 8.99%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$4,077
0.05%
1%
$2,303
2y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Republican by 9.0% or more

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$3,850
0.05%
8%
$2,620
2y 2mo 2w
active
Total markets: 20

Description

This market concerns the popular vote outcome in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, specifically tracking whether the winning candidate's margin of victory falls within a competitive range. The event resolves affirmatively regardless of which major party's candidate wins, as long as the margin of victory is at least 0.01 percentage points.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the popular vote margin in the 2028 presidential election, calculated as (winner's votes minus second-place votes) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment as of the January joint session of Congress; if Congress counts a different certificate, that one is used; if Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one applies. Votes for candidates under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If a winner changes party affiliation between election day and inauguration, resolution is based on their Election Day party. An exact 0.00% tie results in all markets resolving to No. The outcomes are divided into specific margin ranges for both Democratic and Republican victories, spanning from 0.01% to 100% margins.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than many traditional polls. While polls often focus on individual candidate preference, this market directly assesses the expected margin of victory. Historically, prediction markets have sometimes offered a more accurate forecast than polls, particularly when factoring in voter turnout and potential shifts in support. It’s important to remember that both polls and this market represent snapshots in time and are subject to change as new information emerges and the election cycle progresses. This market provides a unique perspective on the likely outcome.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcome ranges for the 2028 presidential election margin. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of the expected results. The current volume indicates strong interest in understanding the potential outcome of the election.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official, certified popular vote margin as reported by relevant election authorities. This means the final result will be determined by the actual votes cast and tallied, not by any pre-election predictions or estimates. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their chosen outcome range matches the final, verified result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major economic shifts, unexpected geopolitical events, or significant changes in candidate platforms could all influence trader sentiment. Key primary debates and candidate announcements will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any news regarding potential third-party candidates or shifts in voter demographics could lead to substantial price movements. The release of polling data, while often considered separately, can also impact trading activity in this market as traders incorporate new information into their forecasts.