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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
polymarket
kalshi
predict

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Total volume:
$635,425
Volume 24h:
$5,013
46%
Liquidity:
$574,769
16%
Open interest:
$13,348
0.89%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jun 30, 2027

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 93.8¢ buys you 107 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $107 | Net Profit: $7 Multiplier: 1.07x | ROI: 7% | APY: 10% 246 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Trade
93%
1%
Yes 93.8¢No 7.7¢
1.5¢
$16,846
$28,318
0.28%
11%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
kalshi

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Trade
87%
Yes 98¢No 5¢
3¢
N/A
$6
0%
0%
$6
8mo 6d
active
predict

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Trade
N/A
N/A
95¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
93%
Yes 95.9¢No 6.4¢
Avg: 33.2¢Max: 95¢
polymarket

Marine Le Pen

Trade
92%
Yes 93¢No 9¢
2¢
$15,358
$37,041
0.31%
5%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
predict

Marine Le Pen

Trade
92%
13%
Yes 97¢No 13¢
10¢
$3,321
$463
0.08%
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
kalshi

Marine Le Pen

Trade
92%
Yes 98¢No 5¢
3¢
N/A
$60
0%
0%
$37
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
92%
Yes 96¢No 9¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 10¢
polymarket

Nathalie Arthaud

Trade
88%
2%
Yes 90¢No 15¢
5¢
$11,521
$8,424
0.92%
2%
N/A
5mo 3w 2d
active
kalshi

Nathalie Arthaud

Trade
77%
Yes 92¢No 14¢
6¢
N/A
$9
0%
0%
$9
8mo 6d
active
predict

Nathalie Arthaud

Trade
N/A
N/A
86¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
87.5%
Yes 91¢No 14.5¢
Avg: 32.3¢Max: 86¢
kalshi

Édouard Philippe

Trade
86%
Yes 92¢No 15¢
7¢
N/A
$639
0%
3%
$233
8mo 6d
active
polymarket

Édouard Philippe

Trade
85%
6%
Yes 89¢No 19¢
8¢
$11,975
$22,193
0.83%
4%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
predict

Édouard Philippe

Trade
N/A
N/A
44¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
85%
Yes 90.5¢No 17¢
Avg: 19.7¢Max: 44¢
polymarket

Fabien Roussel

Trade
84%
3%
Yes 85¢No 17¢
2¢
$10,602
$4,954
1%
3%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
kalshi

Fabien Roussel

Trade
81%
2%
Yes 82¢No 21¢
3¢
N/A
$387
1%
1%
$385
8mo 6d
active
predict

Fabien Roussel

Trade
N/A
N/A
84¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
83.8%
Yes 83.5¢No 19¢
Avg: 29.7¢Max: 84¢
polymarket

Raphaël Glucksmann

Trade
81%
Yes 82¢No 20¢
2¢
$12,600
$30,284
0.18%
22%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
kalshi

Raphaël Glucksmann

Trade
81%
Yes 81¢No 25¢
6¢
N/A
$2,970
0%
2%
$2,376
8mo 6d
active
predict

Raphaël Glucksmann

Trade
N/A
N/A
75¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
81%
Yes 81.5¢No 22.5¢
Avg: 27.7¢Max: 75¢
kalshi

Éric Zemmour

Trade
80%
Yes 82¢No 24¢
6¢
N/A
$4,912
0%
5%
$1,463
8mo 6d
active
polymarket

Éric Zemmour

Trade
73%
2%
Yes 75¢No 29¢
4¢
$11,518
$21,216
0%
7%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
predict

Éric Zemmour

Trade
N/A
N/A
39¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
74.3%
Yes 78.5¢No 26.5¢
Avg: 16.3¢Max: 39¢
polymarket

David Lisnard

Trade
72%
Yes 76¢No 32¢
8¢
$2,432
$27,161
5%
10%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
predict

David Lisnard

Trade
N/A
N/A
94¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
72%
Yes 76¢No 32¢
Avg: 51¢Max: 94¢
kalshi

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Trade
68%
Yes 69¢No 37¢
6¢
N/A
$194
0%
0%
$124
8mo 6d
active
polymarket

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Trade
67%
1%
Yes 69¢No 35¢
4¢
$20,448
$3,441
0%
9%
N/A
8mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
67.1%
Yes 69¢No 36¢
Avg: 5¢Max: 6¢
Total markets: 25 of 115

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Jean-Luc Mélenchon appearing on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict is 91.6%. Resolution will be based on the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council, or failing that, actual ballot appearance, with a final resolution date no later than July 1, 2027. Keep an eye on the French Constitutional Council’s expected publication of the official candidate list in advance of the April 2027 election to see if this probability shifts.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi explicitly includes 'approved' or 'confirmed' alongside 'certified' as resolution criteria, while Polymarket only mentions 'included on the official candidate list'.Hero tip: The difference in phrasing is unlikely to materially affect resolution, as 'approved' and 'confirmed' are generally implied by being on the official candidate list. Focus on candidates with strong political backing and a clear path to meeting the official nomination requirements.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. "The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the individual is 'officially certified, approved, or confirmed' to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before June 30, 2027. "If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list..."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the corresponding individual is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before June 30, 2027. Official certification refers to formal approval by French electoral authorities, which typically requires candidates to meet legal requirements such as collecting a minimum number of endorsements from elected officials and filing proper candidacy declarations. The resolution date of June 30, 2027 establishes the cutoff for when official candidate lists must be finalized. Each individual's market operates independently—a Yes resolution for one candidate does not affect the resolution of markets for other candidates. Resolution is based solely on official government records and formal electoral documentation, not on candidate announcements, campaign activities, or media reports of candidacy intentions.

Predict

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks the potential candidates who will appear on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $635,425, with $9,089 traded in the last 24 hours. This represents a consensus view of forecasters regarding the likelihood of various individuals being nominated. Polymarket currently favors Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 93.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Marine Le Pen appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? at 92.0%. The dashboard provides a dynamic, real-time assessment of these probabilities as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences at a specific moment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome, potentially revealing more about true beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by social desirability bias or sampling errors, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages more honest predictions. It's important to note that both sources have their strengths and weaknesses, and a comprehensive analysis considers both when evaluating the upcoming election. The current spread between the leading candidates in this market is 1.0.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Different user bases, varying trading fees, and distinct market-making strategies all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, the specific questions asked on each platform—Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? versus Will Marine Le Pen appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?—introduce nuance. Each platform's liquidity and trading volume also play a role; lower volume can lead to greater price volatility and divergence. These differences don’t necessarily indicate disagreement about the underlying event, but rather reflect the unique dynamics of each prediction market.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official list of candidates for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is published by the French government and is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect which individuals are officially registered as candidates and appear on the ballot. The market will then settle based on this official record, providing a clear and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official announcements as the election cycle progresses.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, shifts in public opinion reflected in polling data, and any legal challenges to potential candidates’ eligibility would all be key catalysts. Unexpected announcements regarding potential candidates’ health or personal lives could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, significant geopolitical events or economic shocks in France could influence the political landscape and, consequently, the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the evolving dynamics of the 2027 French presidential election.