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2,859,322,643

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$1,733,278,615

483,990

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35,811

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3,349

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2026: Trump's bad year?
kalshi

2026: Trump's bad year?

Dec 17, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$274,033
Volume 24h:
$42
42%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$98,546
0%

Yes

 - Kalshi

Yes - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

4%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 4.9¢ buys you 2,041 shares | Odds: 4% Total Payout: $2,041 | Net Profit: $1,941 Multiplier: 20.41x | ROI: 1,941% High Projected APY: 1,194% 430 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yes

Trade
4%
Yes 4.9¢No 98.8¢
3.7¢
N/A
$274,033
0.02%
0.72%
$98,546
1y 2mo
active
Total markets: 1

Description

Multiple economic and political conditions must all occur simultaneously within a specific timeframe for this event to occur, including approval rating performance, electoral outcomes, and labor market conditions.

Kalshi

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls often capture a snapshot of current sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen by Dec 31, 2027. Historically, prediction markets have sometimes outperformed polls in forecasting election outcomes and other future events. This difference arises because traders have a financial stake in their predictions, incentivizing them to consider a wider range of factors and update their views as new information emerges. It’s a forward-looking assessment, unlike polls which are often retrospective.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of various scenarios. This creates a real-time, market-driven forecast for the 2026 Trump political future, driven by the collective intelligence of those trading on Kalshi.